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Introduction to Probability

Use the laws of probability to make sound decisions with limited information.

Probability is the business of decision making in the face of uncertainty, whether it's forecasting the future or inferring the past. The rules are simple enough, but applying them to realistic problems is usually gated by calculus.

To jump the gap, you'll use a simulation system that lets you apply the rules of probability as you learn them, without cranking through difficult calculations. The skills you'll develop are aimed at modeling real-world scenarios from risk management, to identifying fraud, to finding the right apartment in a hot market.



Concepts and

  1. 1


    Start by understanding and strengthening your existing probabilistic intuition!

    1. Uniform Probabilities

      A tour of the principles of probability and their unusual implications in the world around you.

    2. Counting Cases

      What does it mean for a test to be 90% accurate?

    3. Intro to Simulation

      Simulation can solve problems that would otherwise be out of reach.

  2. 2

    Applying Probability

    Use probability to strategize and coordinate in the face of uncertainty.

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      Probabilistic Strategy

      Discover a basic rule of probability and use it to unravel a troubled marketing strategy.

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      Waiting Time

      Probability can predict more than just how likely an event is.

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      Common Paradoxes

      A basic rule of probability can help you unravel a surprising paradox.

  3. 3

    Principles of Probability

    Probability boils down to two fundamental rules.

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      Probability as Counting

      If you look at it right way, probability is nothing but counting.

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      The Rule of Sum

      If there's more than one way, it's time to add 'em up.

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      The Product Rule

      Sometimes it's both — what are the chances?