Thinking Probabilistically
Use probability to avoid logical fallacies and quantify rare events.
How can we accurately model the unpredictable world around us? How can we reason precisely about randomness? This course will guide you through the most important and enjoyable ideas in probability to help you cultivate a more quantitative worldview.
By the end of this course, you’ll master the fundamentals of probability, and you’ll apply them to a wide array of problems, from games and sports to economics and science.
Think probabilistically and explore the wide-reaching applications of probability.
Get the basics down.
When do you add probabilities and when do you multiply them?
Use Venn diagrams to make deductions about probabilities.
Learn to simplify problems by shifting your perspective to consider the probability an event does NOT happen.
Put your probability knowledge to the test solving some real-world problems!
Make choices by comparing the costs and benefits to find the best and worst possible outcomes.
Update your assumptions with the information around you.
Explore the mathematics that governs the probabilities of dependent events.
Practice calcuating conditional probabilities.
How is the probability of A given B related to the probability of B given A?
Explore problems where misconceptions commonly arise, including the Monty Hall problem.
To understand a complex scenario, systematically split up the big problem into small cases.
Analyze games that have multiple stages of events and rewards.
Sports, economics, science, and more.
How is a player's probability of winning a point related to the probability they win the whole game?
Apply probability to solve problems in genealogy, cancer research, biology, and physics.
Use probability and expected value to forecast financial futures.
Extend what you know about probability to the understand the work potential of assembly lines.
Push the frontiers of your knowledge with these probabilistic techniques.
Use geometric reasoning to understand probability distributions of games with infinitely many outcomes.
Discover the surprising power of counting the same thing in two different ways!
Harness the power of knowing a general pattern that relates the early and late values in a sequence.
Learn what Markov chains are and use them to model the weather.
Explore a clever way to use polynomials to efficiently calculate probabilities.