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## Discrete Probability

How often will a die come up "4"? How likely is it to rain tomorrow? Probability is one of the most powerful frameworks for modeling the world around us.

# Probability Misconceptions

Suppose you flip a fair coin (i.e., a coin that lands Heads with probability 1/2 and Tails with probability 1/2) 4 times. Which of these outcomes is most likely?

Suppose you flip a fair coin (i.e., a coin that lands Heads with probability 1/2 and Tails with probability 1/2) 4 times. Which of these sequences of Heads (H) and Tails (T) is most likely?

Suppose you flip a fair coin (i.e., a coin that lands Heads with probability 1/2 and Tails with probability 1/2) 10 times. Which of these sequences of Heads (H) and Tails (T) is most likely?

Suppose you flip a fair coin (i.e., a coin that lands Heads with probability 1/2 and Tails with probability 1/2) 100 times. Which is more likely:

If you flip a fair coin (i.e., a coin that lands Heads with probability 1/2 and Tails with probability 1/2) 10 times, which is more likely?

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