Bayes' Theorem in Clincal Settings: Testing For Cancer a Second Time

Probability Level 2

In a previous problem on a patient who receives a positive result in a cancer screen, we determined what the odds were that this patient has cancer.

But what are the odds that the patient has cancer if they are tested a second time and receive a positive result for the second test as well?

From before, you should assume there is a 1% prevalence rate (that 1% of the population has breast cancer), a hit rate (sensitivity) of 80%, and a false positive rate of 9.6% on the initial test.

Please provide this percentage answer as an integer with no remainder, for instance, 11 for 11.2137%, as opposed to entering 0.11.

Hint: You will need the answer to the previous problem, linked to again here.

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