9 of 100: Bond. James Bond.

Probability Level 2

Agent Bond has been captured and is about to be killed by his enemy, Scaramanga. Scaramanga takes a six-chamber revolver and places two bullets next to one another, as shown above. He spins and locks the cylinder so a random chamber is on top, aims at Bond, and fires ... nothing happens. He then tells Bond that he will fire once more and if Bond is still standing afterwards he is free to go.

Scaramanga gives Bond two options - either he fires again right away or spins the cylinder of the revolver so a random chamber is on top and then fires. Which option makes it more likely that agent Bond will survive?

Note: After firing, a gun automatically rotates the cylinder by one position to fire from the next chamber over.

For this problem, assume that Bond is out of tricks and that he must make this choice carefully to maximize his chances of survival.


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