A new disease has been identified in the human population. For the sake of the following discussion, we will refer to it as (consumerism-order 1).
Scientists have have devised a machine for testing a person for . It identifies in an infected person with accuracy. It identifies a healthy person as healthy of the time. The probability of a random person being affected by is known to be .
Find the approximate probability that a person is affected by , given that his/her test returned positive.
Note: The data given in this problem are representative. The actual probability of a random human to be affected by is best left unsaid.