Let’s play a game of Russian roulette. I have tied you to a chair. I have a gun in my hand. I show you the cylinder of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now you see me put two bullets in ADJACENT chambers in the gun. I close the cylinder and spin it. I put the gun to your head and pull the trigger. Click. Its a blank! You survived!
Now I’m going to pull the trigger one more time WITHOUT spinning the cylinder. What is the percentage probability of survival for the second shot?