Sun & Beaches

Probability Level 4

Once people arrive in Thailand, they want to enjoy the sun and beaches on 2 popular islands in the south: Samui Island & Phangan Island.

From survey data, when on the mainland, 70% of tourists plan to go to Samui Island, 20% to Phangan Island, and only 10% remain on shore the next day.

When on Samui Island, 40% continue to stay on Samui, 50% plan to go to Phangan Island, and only 10% return to mainland the next day.

Finally, when on Phangan Island, 30% prolong their stay here, 30% divert to Samui Island, and 40% go back to mainland the next day.

Starting from the mainland, what is the probability (in percentage) that the travelers will be on the mainland at the end of a 3-day trip?


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