The Bayesian problem that 95 out of 100 physicians get wrong

Probability Level 2

Estimate the probability of a breast cancer in a given patient, given that the patient receives a positive result on a cancer screening test.

Assume that there is a 1% prevalence rate (that 1% of the population has breast cancer), a hit rate (sensitivity) of 80%, and a false positive rate of 9.6%.

Please provide this answer as a percentage to the tenths digit, for instance, 1.1 for 1.1%, as opposed to entering 0.011.

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