The Middle Earth World Cup Final
In the Middle Earth World Cup final, only the elves of Mirkwood and the dwarves of Erebor remain. The dwarves have a free kick 20 meters from the 5 m wide goal. However, the elves build a wall of players 3 m wide 10 m from the ball. The dwarves are so short that they cannot possibly chip it over the wall, only bend it around. The velocity of the ball is anywhere from 1-11 m/s and it spins anywhere from 0-10 rotations per second. To the nearest percent, what is the probability that the ball goes into the goal?
No one is on the field except for the kicker and wall, including no goalie. Don't worry about gravity- we'll assume that the goal is infinitely high and the ball gets that far. Don't worry about air resistance, as there is no air in middle earth. Don't worry about friction either.
Need a hint?