On July 25, 2015, Alex Rodriguez hit three homeruns in a single game, marking the fifth time in his career that he's hit three in one game. Over his entire career, he has hit 677 homeruns in 11,725 plate appearances. By random chance, how many three homerun games should we expect Alex Rodriguez to have?
He has played 2,658 games in his career.
For simplicity, assume that he gets four plate appearances in every game that he plays.
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