Perplexing Probability

Flex your probability skills with some surprisingly counter-intuitive games and puzzles.

Exposing Misconceptions

Gaming Strategies

Probability is Everywhere

The Monty Hall Game

More Man-Eating Goats

The Boy-or-Girl Paradox

Tuesday Changes Everything

Bayes' Theorem Magic

Crazy Dice Warmup

Competitive Design

Beating a Standard Die (I)

Beating a Standard Die (II)

3-Player Competitions

Non-Transitive Superiority

Course description

Probability is full of counter-intuitive results and paradoxes. Challenge yourself by learning how to mathematically master some very surprising games and experiments including the Monty Hall game show, the Boy or Girl paradox, and the Tuesday paradox. Some prior knowledge of probability at the level of the Probability Fundamentals course is useful but not required for tackling this course.

Topics covered

  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Complementary Probability
  • Conditional Probability
  • Expected Value
  • Probability Distributions
  • Probability Misconceptions
  • Russian Roulette Variants
  • The Boy or Girl Paradox
  • The Monty Hall Game
  • The Tuesday Paradox


  • Introduction to Probability
  • Reasoning with Algebra