The basic idea is simple. If you can spot the most likely outcome, you have a better chance of winning any game of chance. Are you more likely to draw a square or a two from this deck? Well, let's see. In this deck of three cards, we have two cards with a square and only one card with the number two. So, drawing a square is more likely than drawing a two.
Here's a different deck. Are we more likely to draw a one or a star? Let's count. There's only one card with the number one, and we've got three cards with the star on them. With three chances of getting a star versus one chance of drawing a one, the star is more likely. This is the key principle.
If there are more cards that meet a specific goal, that goal is more likely to be met. Let's apply this idea. Are we more likely to get a card with a triangle or a number that's two or more? Looking at the deck, only one card meets a triangle goal. For two or more, the cards with a two and a three work. Since there are more ways to meet the two or more goal, it is more likely than getting a card with a triangle. Here we have three goals and we're looking for the one that is most likely to be met.
Let's check each one. How many cards have a star? Just one. How many cards have two? Also just one. How about a three? There are two cards with a three.
So that's the most likely goal. Let's try one more. Which of these goals is most likely? Let's count each one. For two or more, we have the two, the three, and the other three. So that's three possible cards. For a square, we have two cards. And for a star, we just have one. So two or more is the most likely goal out of these three goals.
Probability all comes down to counting the ways something can happen.
