Discrete Mathematics
# Conditional Probability

Conditional probability allows us to apply partial knowledge about a situation to better predict the ultimate outcome. However, more misconceptions arise from this mathematics than from almost any other single topic in statistics!

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Conditional probability can be counter-intuitive, but that just makes the mathematical mastery of it more important. Some common misconceptions include the notion of “streaks” in random events, tricky scenarios like the Monty Hall game show, and the logical misapplication of Bayesian inference.

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