Almost 2019

It is October 2018 and it is near to 2019. Included here is a problem involving 2019. The one who can post the correct answer first will post another problem involving 2019. Our target is to get 2019 problems here. So, here is the first problem:

  1. There are 2019 prisoners in a prison. The prison warden decides to play a game with them. He lines them up in a row all of them facing another prisoner. Prisoner N will face Prisoner N-1. He takes 2019 black hats and 2019 white hats. He randomly puts one on each prisoner’s head. (He flips a standard coin to determine what hat to put on a prisoner’s head.) Everyone can see the colour of the hat of the person with any number lower than them. He explains the rules of the game and tells the prisoners that each one of them has to guess the colour of their hat or say pass. If any of them will guess incorrectly, everyone spends 10 more years in prison. If someone guesses correctly, everyone goes free. If someone guesses right but another guesses wrong, they spend 10 more years in prison. If everyone says pass, nothing happens. What is the probability that they spend 10 more years in prison if they play optimally?

Note by Jerome Te
1 month ago

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Comments

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I realized something was wrong. I added a detail.

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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What detail

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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The standard coin detail, see it now?

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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The probability is \(\frac{1}{2019}\)

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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I think it is incorrect :(

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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@Jerome Te, I noticed that you are a new member. I suggest you learn \(\LaTeX\).

Note: If you do not know where to start you can refer to my set : \(\LaTeX\) Help

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Mohmmad Farhan @Jerome Te, You may change profile pic in your about

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Mohmmad Farhan Thanks for that!

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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@Jerome Te No probs

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Jerome Te, I think it is \(\frac{1}{2}\)

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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But confirm 2018 out of 2019 will say correctly

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Mohmmad Farhan Did I phrase the question incorrectly?

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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@Jerome Te No. You did not

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Mohmmad Farhan 2018 out of 2019 will surely get it correctly if everyone will guess. But they can say pass

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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@Jerome Te Oh! The answer is 0

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Mohmmad Farhan I still don’t think it is right :( because seeing the other people’s hat doesn’t give you any information about your own, you may calculate the probability of your hat being white, but the probability doesn’t quite matter, because everything with a small probability may happen.

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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@Jerome Te I mean everyone passes

Mohmmad Farhan - 1 month ago

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@Mohmmad Farhan Here, optimal play means that they want to minimize the time they spend in prison. They are trying to minimize the estimated value.

Jerome Te - 1 month ago

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